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When the 55th annual Grammy Awards are handed out on Feb. 10, the four top trophies won’t go to old legends, rappers or jazz acts — all noticeably absent in the main categories. Here’s our look at who is most likely to win, who actually deserves to win and who got totally snubbed.

Record of the Year

“Lonely Boy” - The Black Keys
“Stronger (What Doesn’t Kill You)” - Kelly Clarkson
“We Are Young” - Fun. featuring Janelle Monáe
“Somebody That I Used To Know” - Gotye featuring Kimbra
“Thinkin Bout You” - Frank Ocean
“We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together” - Taylor Swift

MOST LIKELY: “We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together”
MOST DESERVING: “Somebody That I Used to Know”
SNUBBED: “Gangnam Style” - Psy

Swift’s crossover smash belongs in the processed-cheese department, right alongside the equally addictive “Gangnam Style.” Gotye’s creepy “Somebody” was seriously overexposed, but it’s an earworm with legs.

Song of the Year

“The A Team” - Ed Sheeran, songwriter (Ed Sheeran)
“Adorn” - Miguel Pimentel, songwriter (Miguel Pimentel)
“Call Me Maybe” - Tavish Crowe, Carly Rae Jepsen and Josh Ramsay, songwriters (Carly Rae Jepsen)
“Stronger (What Doesn’t Kill You)” - Jörgen Elofsson, David Gamson, Greg Kurstin and Ali Tamposi, songwriters (Kelly Clarkson)
“We Are Young” - Jack Antonoff, Jeff Bhasker, Andrew Dost and Nate Ruess, songwriters (Fun. featuring Janelle Monáe)

MOST LIKELY: “We Are Young”
SNUBBED: “We Take Care of Our Own” - Bruce Springsteen

English newcomer Sheeran deserves the statue for his folk lament on drug addiction, but the Boss deserved a nod for a brilliant song that was both uplifting and downright cynical.

Album of the Year

El Camino - The Black Keys
Some Nights - Fun.
Babel - Mumford & Sons
Channel Orange - Frank Ocean
Blunderbuss - Jack White

MOST LIKELY and most DESERVING: Channel Orange
SNUBBED: Four the Record – Miranda Lambert

Ocean’s everything-but-the-kitchen-sink brand of R&B should edge out strong outings by the Black Keys and Jack White. Lambert’s snub is part of an anti-country trend in the best song-record-album sweepstakes, and voters weren’t impressed with anyone over 40, either: Springsteen, Bob Dylan and even Sir Paul McCartney didn’t make the cut here.

Best New Artist

Alabama Shakes
Hunter Hayes
The Lumineers
Frank Ocean

MOST LIKELY: Frank Ocean
MOST DESERVING: Alabama Shakes
SNUBBED: Carly Rae Jepsen

Ocean will probably take home the trophy, but bluesy bawler Brittany Howard and her Alabama Shakes deserve the award for kicking the door back open on garage rock. Jepsen’s monster hit “Call Me Maybe” was so 10 months ago; Grammy voters apparently deleted her number.